Protected areas to tackle biodiversity loss now, and for the future

Biodiversity
2022-2027
Sustainable Development icon: climate action
Sustainable Development icon: life below water
Sustainable Development icon: life on land

Project Lead

Challenges

The High Ambition Coalition for Nature and People, an intergovernmental group of 60 countries, champions a global deal for nature and people and has the central goal of protecting at least 30% of the world’s land and ocean by 2030. The 30x30 target aims to halt the accelerating loss of species, address the biodiversity crisis, and protect vital ecosystems. Scotland is committed to this target and has 17% of its land currently protected and 37% of its seas in Marine Protected areas (MPAs). However, in both environments, this does not mean that damaging activities have ceased.

Climate change is a threat to biodiversity. The magnitude of that threat depends in part on the extent to which a species’ climatic niche will shrink or shift spatially. The magnitude of the threat of climate change is measured in bioclimatic models with a granularity of 1 kilometre. However, many species often respond to microclimates at much smaller scales, down to metres, or even centimetres. Therefore, certain landscapes may offer refugia – local microclimates that remain suitable even as the large-scale climate continues to change – allowing the chance for individual species to survive climate change. Such refugia can be especially important for dispersal-limited species since they provide continued niche availability at local scales.

The choice of which areas of land and sea to prioritise for conservation protection is complex. Setting targets for the coverage of protected areas is only useful if we know what type of protection should be implemented and where, and whether this protection is successful. We must select sites which maximise the effectiveness of biodiversity protection and deliver the most benefits. Understanding the factors which influence the distribution of species across a landscape is an essential step to identifying optimal locations for protection.

Protection areas need to be positioned within the wider landscape/seascape to provide maximum connectivity to enable species movement and to provide a buffer from the drivers of biodiversity loss occurring outside protected areas. In addition, the protected area network needs to be flexible with respect to climate change. Specifically, it needs to cope with changes in species distributions due to a changing climate while at the same time providing refugia for species with limited dispersal abilities.

We need to know how to best measure the condition or success of a protected area. Current monitoring of protected areas is based on the aim of conserving the “status quo” of the biodiversity when the site was first protected. This approach ignores the ecologically dynamic nature of species and ecosystems. We urgently need to develop a method to monitor ‘success’ that can cope with changes in species distributions due to a changing climate while at the same time ensuring that refugia are maintained for species with limited dispersal abilities.

Questions

How can NatureScot and the Scottish Government extend the range of protected areas coverage to 30% by 2030? How should we approach ‘favourable conditions' in a rapidly changing climate when we are unable to replicate the conditions that gave rise to particular states of nature in the past?
How can we co-develop approaches to habitat connectivity that meet the needs of all stakeholders and will be resilient in the face of pressures including climate change?
How can we identify and evaluate more flexible approaches to complement the existing suite of protected areas, including ‘condition’ in a changing climate?

Solutions

The overall objective of this project is to improve our understanding of how to design effectively protected area networks against a backdrop of rapid environmental change and how to measure the success of protected areas.

 

A Seascape approach for biodiversity protection

We are focusing on developing a novel approach to predictive distribution modelling of fish species, combining multiple spatial scales and accounting for patchy habitat mosaics. This work will provide the practical knowledge required to manage and conserve species in Scotland’s seascapes, improve our conceptual understanding of fish distributions, and provide the essential knowledge required to infer habitat connectivity. We are providing critical information that we currently lack, to help identify how to place and protect our MPAs.

 

Genetic diversity and Protected Areas

We are exploring the importance of our protected areas for conserving genetic diversity. Genetic diversity is crucially important in allowing species to adapt to changing climatic conditions and other stressors. We are utilising a unique experimental platform, focused on Scots Pine as Scotland’s most culturally important tree species. The platform contains genetic material representing twenty-one of Scotland’s native pinewoods and will allow us to test options for utilising the natural genetic variation within a tree species to keep pace with predicted changes in climate.

 

Identifying and providing climate refugia in protected areas

We are reviewing the scientific literature on microclimates, and this will be combined with field sampling (microclimatic measurements) and GIS analysis of example protected areas that range from simple to more complex. We are creating a specific case study to model climate refugia for Scottish temperate rainforests (including Atlantic oak woods).

 

Resilience and measuring success

We need to know if protected areas are delivering on their objective of conserving biodiversity, and what is the most appropriate method by which to measure their success. We are using two unique databases of long-term vegetation monitoring plots across Scotland to assess if the rate of vegetation change differs between plots inside and outside protected areas, or if wider landscape scale pressures, not prevented by protected areas are the major drivers of biodiversity loss. We are then comparing approaches between marine and terrestrial protected areas with respect to designation, monitoring and meeting the 30 x 30 target.

Overall, this project is helping to improve the planning and implementation of protected areas on land and at sea and a better understanding of how to monitor their effectiveness.

Progress

2024 / 2025

An important aspect of the project is supporting the implementation of Other Effective Conservation Measures (OECMs), an emerging approach that recognises areas delivering long-term biodiversity conservation outside the traditional protected area network. Researchers have undertaken a comprehensive review of international approaches to community participation in biodiversity conservation, examining the different models, methods and motivations that underpin successful engagement. This work is informing an expert workshop being developed in collaboration with the High Ambition Coalition of Subnational Governments, helping to identify practical approaches that can support OECM implementation in Scotland and strengthen community involvement in conservation.

The project is also improving understanding of how genetic diversity contributes to the resilience of Scotland's forests. Long-term monitoring of Scots pine provenance trials has shown that nursery growing conditions continue to influence tree growth, survival and seasonal development even a decade after planting. However, the persistence of these effects varies between populations and planting locations, highlighting the combined importance of local adaptation and acclimation in determining woodland resilience. These findings will help inform decisions about seed sourcing and woodland restoration as Scotland's climate continues to change.

Understanding where biodiversity may be naturally buffered against climate change is another major focus of the programme. Researchers have produced high-resolution (5 m) microclimate maps for National Nature Reserves within Scotland's internationally important temperate rainforest zone. These maps are now being combined with UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) to identify potential climate refugia—areas where cooler and more stable local conditions may allow sensitive species to persist despite wider climatic change. This work provides an important evidence base for future conservation planning and the long-term management of protected areas.

The project is also helping to modernise how the condition and resilience of protected woodlands are assessed. Working closely with NatureScot, Forestry and Land Scotland, Scottish Forestry and the Woodland Trust, researchers have chaired an advisory group supporting the Delivering Healthy Ecosystems programme. This collaboration has identified the key pressures affecting woodland condition and developed a new resilience assessment framework that considers future climate-related risks alongside current site condition. The framework has already been trialled on woodland Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSIs) and is helping NatureScot develop a more forward-looking approach to monitoring and managing Scotland's protected woodlands.

The research is already influencing conservation policy and practice. Findings from the temperate rainforest work are supporting a collaborative funding proposal with Forest Research to improve rainforest restoration across the UK and are being used by the Argyll and the Isles Coast and Countryside Trust to identify lower-risk locations for woodland restoration. The project will also contribute evidence to the Alliance for Scotland's Rainforest to strengthen future monitoring and management guidance. The team has also worked closely with NatureScot on the development of revised Site Condition Monitoring approaches and presented findings directly to Scottish Government biodiversity policy teams through dedicated knowledge exchange events.

2022 / 2023

This project is investigating how Scotland’s protected areas can best support biodiversity and resilience in the face of climate change. In Year 1, all objectives and milestones were achieved.

Key highlights:

  • Seascape approach (Objective 1): A new method is being developed to predict the distribution of fish species, taking into account complex seabed habitats. Fieldwork in Loch Eriboll and Wester Ross is using underwater stereo video cameras to study fish diversity and abundance, alongside mapping seabed habitats. A peer-reviewed paper has been submitted, and findings have been shared with stakeholders.

  • Genetic diversity (Objective 2): Scots pine, Scotland’s most culturally significant tree, is being studied to understand how genetic variation can support adaptation to climate change. Measurements across 21 native pinewood populations are ongoing, with one paper published and another in preparation. This long-term platform has already leveraged over £630k in additional funding for related research on tree roots, disease resilience, and tree form.

  • Climate refugia (Objective 3): Work has begun to identify microclimates within protected areas that could act as climate refuges for vulnerable species. A pilot study in Scotland’s Celtic rainforests deployed sensors across three National Nature Reserves, successfully recording woodland microclimates through summer and winter.

  • Measuring success (Objective 4): Using 40 years of vegetation data, the team is comparing biodiversity change inside and outside protected areas. Metrics such as species diversity, grass, shrub, and forb cover are being analysed to assess how effective protected areas have been at conserving biodiversity.

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