Achieving food security has gained prominence in the present policy agenda to increase resilience to adverse events. Using a novel method, we estimated the food balance sheets of Scotland, and assessed the self-sufficiency of major food commodities for the first time. We found that Scotland can produce enough cereal, potatoes, lamb, beef, dairy, and eggs to meet its own needs, but it still depends on imports of poultry and pork. Wheat and dairy from Scotland are especially important, as they significantly contribute to the nation's overall energy, protein, and fat intake.
Foods high in protein (Photo by Towfiqu barbhuiya, Unsplash)
Stage
Work CompletedDirectory of Expertise
Purpose
By 2025, Scotland will be a Good Food Nation where people from all walks of life take pride and pleasure in, and benefit from, the food they produce, buy, cook, serve, and eat every. To achieve the Good Food Nation Act's goals, efforts have been made to expand access to and promote the benefits of healthy local foods, as well as to ensure the sustainability of Scotland's food industry. To ensure healthy, sustainable, and secure food environments and to support the Food Standards Scotland Strategy for 2021– 2026, it is important to understand how our diets relate to food supply chains.
Therefore, our study explored:
- What is produced in Scotland?
- What is consumed in Scotland?
- Is Scotland self-sufficient in the major food commodities?
- How does Scottish production contribute to nutrition security?
Data from 2003 to 2019 were obtained from Economic Reports on Scottish Agriculture and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA)’s Family Food Statistics. Food import and export data are not available for Scotland; therefore, we developed a consumption-based approach to estimate the net trade values of each commodity. Next, we estimated Scotland’s food balance sheets (FBS) using FAO’s FBS Approach and calculated the self-sufficiency ratios (SSR) of major food commodities which reflect the extent to which Scotland can meet its food needs through domestic production. We also assessed the contribution of domestic production towards nutrient security.
Results
Production and consumption
Our study showed that wheat, oats, and egg production in Scotland increased, whilst pork and poultry production dropped between 2003 and 2019. We also found that dairy and eggs are the most consumed food commodities in Scotland.
Figure 1: Production of major food commodities in Scotland between 2003-2019
Figure 2: Consumption of major food commodities in Scotland between 2003-2019
Net trade
Our study showed that Scotland is a net exporter of cereal and potatoes, though this was not always the case between 2003 and 2019. Despite the annual variation, Scotland is a net exporter of barley and oats, i.e. exporting more than importing. Since 2003, Scotland had a net trade surplus of potatoes, exporting more potatoes than it imports. Scotland was previously a net exporter of wheat but since 2012, became a net importer.
Scotland is a net exporter of beef (59.4 thousand tonnes in 2019) but a net importer of pork and poultry. Scotland is also a net exporter of dairy products, and it turned from a net importer to a net exporter of eggs in 2014. These statistics are illustrated below.
Figure 3: Net trade in barley, potatoes, oats and wheat between 2003-2019
Figure 4: Net trade in eggs and dairy between 2003-2019
Figure 5: Net trade in pork, poultry, beef and lamb between 2003-2019
Scotland’s ability to produce food compared to total consumption (2003-2019)
Scotland has a strong level of self-sufficiency in cereals, potatoes, lamb, beef, dairy and eggs. However, we found that there is room for improvement in achieving self-sufficiency in poultry and pork, where the self-sufficiency ratio (SSR) is below 100%, indicating that domestic production is insufficient to meet Scottish demand.
Table 1: Mean self-sufficiency ratios of the main food commodities in Scotland
Comparison of the food sources supplying energy and macronutrients available for consumption in Scotland in 2019
Wheat contributes significantly to Scotland’s total energy supply, with a substantial portion originating from Scotland. Potatoes are also an important source of energy, and the entire supply comes from Scotland. Meat products are notable sources of protein and fat, with varying proportions from Scottish origin. Dairy products and eggs contribute significantly to protein and fat supply and their whole supply comes from Scotland.
Figure 7: Energy supply by the main food commodities, available for consumption in Scotland
Figure 8: Fat supply by the main food commodities, available for consumption in Scotland
Figure 9: Protein supply by the main food commodities, available for consumption in Scotland
Our study provides critical insights into Scotland's diverse and adaptable food system, revealing varying levels of self-sufficiency across key commodities. As can be seen from the results above, while Scotland is largely self-sufficient in cereals, potatoes, lamb, beef, dairy, and eggs—indicating a strong capacity to meet domestic demand—there are vulnerabilities in the supply of poultry and pork, where self-sufficiency is lower. Our analysis of nutrient security shows that wheat and dairy sourced from Scotland play crucial roles in the food supply chain, significantly influencing total energy intake, dietary protein, and primary dietary fat sources.
Benefits
By analysing production, consumption, trade, and self-sufficiency, we have gained a comprehensive understanding of how these elements interconnect within Scotland's food system. This knowledge is essential for informed dietary planning, developing food security strategies, and targeting support for local agriculture. The food balance sheets we have developed will be instrumental in forecasting future food production and consumption scenarios, optimizing nutritional outcomes, and minimizing environmental impacts. This also enhances our ability to assess the extent of food localisation in Scotland.
Our assessment serves as a robust foundation for evidence-based decision-making in Scotland's agricultural and food policies. It identifies key areas where investment and support are needed to strengthen domestic production and foster a more resilient and sustainable food system. This could inform strategies like Scotland's Good Food Nation Bill and the Food Standards Scotland Strategy for 2021–2026, which aims to support local food production and a sustainable food system.
Recognising the challenges of regional food self-sufficiency studies—especially due to complex political and institutional frameworks and limited data availability—we introduced a novel method to bridge this data gap. This approach holds significant potential for future research, enabling the estimation of regional food self-sufficiency even in the absence of comprehensive trade data and food balance sheets.