Understanding the Scottish food supply chain

A key milestone was to develop an aggregated database of food production, imports, exports, landings (for fish), purchasing and intake data over the last 11 years (over the last 17 years for cereals, potato, meat and dairy) to underpin our mapping and modelling research.

Although Food Balance Sheets (FBS) are available for the UK, the United Nation's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) does not estimate these for Scotland. Therefore, we first constructed the annual FBS for major food commodities, including wheat, barley, oats, potatoes, poultry, beef, pork, lamb, dairy, and eggs, in Scotland from 2003 to 2019, using the FAO’s FBS approach. Domestic production, net stocks, Scottish food, seed, feed, and other data for each commodity were obtained from Economic Reports on Scottish Agriculture. Food purchase data for Scotland were collected from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) Family Food statistics, including 167 final food products. They were back-transformed into the corresponding annual consumption of primary commodity equivalents using food conversion factors. Food import and export data are not readily available for Scotland. Therefore, we developed a consumption-based approach to estimate the net trade values of each commodity. Estimation of self-sufficiency ratio’s, showing the magnitude of production in relation to domestic utilisation, revealed that Scotland is a net exporter of cereal, potatoes, beef, dairy, and eggs, and is self-sufficient in these. However, it relies on imports of poultry and pork. We also found that wheat and dairy sourced from Scotland play crucial roles in the supply of energy, dietary protein and fat through the food supply chain.

For seafood, we collected annual data from the Marine Management Organisation, CEFAS, HMRC, DEFRA Family Food and Office for Health Improvement and Disparities (previously Public Health England). Using these data, we prepared an aggregate seafood database linking production (both capture and aquaculture), trade (imports and exports), purchases (within and out of the household) and consumption data, for the first time, to species level where possible. The database maps UK annual seafood supplies (in grams) between 2009 and 2020. We also mapped dietary nutrient flows from seafood supplies. In addition, we developed an interactive overview of the database in Shiny, allowing stakeholder users without an analytical background to easily visualise the dataset such as the tonnes of seafood produced per year, to species level. Our models indicated that there is currently a mismatch between what seafood is being produced and consumed in the UK. Consequently, the UK experiences large nutrient losses from international seafood exports. We highlight the potential opportunities to reshape our seafood supply chains, by proposing increased consumption of locally caught species, such as herring and mackerel, that optimise oily fish and nutrient intake, whilst minimising climate emissions.

We also analysed Scottish consumers' demand for fish by building a time series from the Kanter Worldpanel dataset for Scotland, and by employing the Linquad demand model, to estimate price and income elasticities for five aggregate fish categories across the seven household groups. Results of the study show that among all household groups, the retired group spends more on fish products out of their total budget for groceries. According to the estimated demand elasticities, for most of the fish products, the demand of the families with children is more responsive to income and price changes compared to families with only adults. Finally we analysed consumers’ demand for fish in Great Britain using data (2013-2021) from the Kantar Worldpanel dataset and employing the Rotterdam demand model. Price and income elasticities were estimated for eleven fish groups across seven household groups. We found that families with children consistently allocate a lower share of their grocery spending on fish compared to households without children, and they prefer to purchase ready-to-use and convenient fish products. Most household groups show a higher responsiveness to changes in prices for chilled fresh/smoked fish products compared to frozen fish items. To investigate the changes of fish demand, we decomposed growth in fish demand into income, relative price, and change in taste and seasonality. For the majority of fish groups, household income and taste were found to be the key determinants of changes in demand. Therefore, increasing fish consumption, especially in lower income groups who do not usually consume much fish, may require more intervention than simply making fish more affordable.

Our assessment forms a basis for evidence-based decision-making for Scotland's food policies. It provides insights into where investments and support may be needed to enhance domestic production and consumption, and promote a resilient and sustainable food system.

Blogs and case studies

Fishing for Health – Do our seafood supplies add up for dietary recommendations?

Household demand for fish in Scotland

Publications and other outputs

• De Roos B. Integrated aquaculture-agriculture production supports food and nutrition security in Bangladesh. Nature Food 2023; 4:833-834.
• De Roos B. Fish as friends and food - The significance of Frank Buckland's observations and ideas for current fish consumption patterns. J Fish Biol 2024. doi: 10.1111/jfb.15675 (online ahead of print).
• Rathnayaka SD, Revoredo-Giha C, de Roos B (2024) “Assessing Scotland's self-sufficiency of major food commodities” Agriculture and Food Security (under review)
• Löfstedt A, Scheliga B, Aceves-Martins M, de Roos B. Mapping of UK seafood supply reveals mismatch between production and consumption, and large nutrient losses through exports. Nature Food (under review).
• Rathnayaka, S.D., Revoredo-Giha, C., and de Roos, B. (2024, March). “An analysis of the household demand for fish in Great Britain”. 98^th Agricultural Economics Conference (AES) 2024, 18^th–20^th March 2024, Edinburgh.
• Rathnayaka, S.D., Revoredo-Giha, C., and de Roos, B. (2024, March). “Estimating Scotland’s Food Balance Sheets”. 98^th Agricultural Economics Conference (AES) 2024, 18^th–20^th March 2024, Edinburgh.
• Rathnayaka, S.D., Revoredo-Giha, C., and de Roos, B. (2023, August). “An Analysis of the Household Demand for Fish in Scotland”. In XVII European Association of Agricultural Economists Congress, August 29^th–September 1^st, 2023, Rennes, France.

Databases:

• Commodity balance sheets for Scotland (2023)
• UK Seafood Database – from Sea to Plate (2023)
• NDNS Nutrient Database plus (2023)
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Improvements to research infrastructure:

• Routines in Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) to compute balance sheets
• Interactive dashboard in Shiny to visualise the UK seafood database
• Dashboard tool to assess dietary patterns in relation to nutritional quality, environmental sustainability and price for different population groups participating in the NDNS survey

Other Outputs

• Policy brief on ‘Scotland’s food balance sheets’ – By Shashika Rathnayaka, Cesar Revoredo-Giha and Baukje de Roos
• Organisation of, and presenting at, the workshop Fish as Friends and Food. Aberdeen. 2023. Baukje de Roos.
• Social media blog about the Royal Highland Show event “Diversifying seafood consumption with tinned fish tasters. 2023. Anneli Lofstedt.
• Interview for ‘On Farm’ podcast – As part of the Royal Highland Show, Anneli Lofstedt was interviewed by Bell Ingram for the On Farm podcast about our seafood research. 2023.
• Presenting at SeafoodMatters UK meeting. Stirling. 2022. Baukje de Roos.
• Feature in the SeafoodMatters UK meeting YouTube video. Stirling. 2022. https://youtu.be/DXCv6GNYMvU. Baukje de Roos.
• Invitation to the Scottish Science Advisory Council meeting for ECRs; contribution to discussions on climate change. 2023. Anneli Lofstedt.
• ‘Confidence to cook’ session in Tillydrone community centre, focussing on fish and health. 2023. Anneli Lofstedt.
• Participation in, member of ‘Thriving biodiversity panel’, and poster presentation at RESAS Science conference. 2023. Baukje de Roos and Anneli Lofstedt.
• Organisation of roundtable event ‘Climate change and changing diets – a consumer perspective. 2023. Anneli Lofstedt, Magaly Aceves Martin and Baukje de Roos.
• Presentation at RESAS away day. 2023. Baukje de Roos
• Presentation ‘Fish as food – how much do we have, what do we eat and what should we be eating?’. RESAS seminar series. 2024. Baukje De Roos, Baukje.