Understanding the mismatch between domestic consumption and production in Scotland

Challenges

The definition of food security, coined at the 1996 World Food Summit, states that “food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life”. An important part of this definition is consumers’ food preferences because where the possibility of trading exists, domestic consumption will not necessarily match domestic production. At a macro level, it is possible to reduce the effect of potential shocks that would affect the stability dimension of food security by increasing food self-sufficiency. However, as it is already well-known, local production does not necessarily imply increasing environmental sustainability.

There is a critical need to improve our understanding of the mismatch between what is consumed within Scotland and what is produced. To our understanding, there have been no studies for Scotland covering the overall range of foods and the level of granularity required. At a more aggregated level and the UK level, Defra produces balance sheets by commodities, such as wheat, where the degree of self-sufficiency is estimated. Similar statistics although without considering trade are produced by the Scottish Government. The academic literature has focused on the aggregated analysis of food security. Several studies compare what is consumed and should be consumed or compare purchasing intentions for Scottish products and whether they are realised. However, no studies are comparing at the level of detail what is produced and what should be consumed.

The key drivers of this project are:

• Good Food Nation vision: consumption patterns are increasingly diversified and some of them might not be healthy or environmentally sustainable),
• Scotland Food and Drink plans: For example, Ambition 2030, which aims at growing the value of the Scottish food sector
• The UK’s EU Exit: uncertainties due to Brexit which may imply a change on the Scottish import base),
• Food Standards Scotland Strategy for 2021– 2026: One of them consists of delivering a food environment which empowers consumers to make safe, healthy, and sustainable choices by driving and influencing strategies for improving access to healthy and sustainable diets for the people of Scotland.

Questions

Solutions

This project is generating new insights into the practical understanding into how current Scottish food production matches or differs with what Scottish households consume. We are using the information about the mismatch between local supply and demand to identify opportunities for increased food security and generating insights between what is produced and what should be consumed based on recommendations. We are also identifying how climate change may affect the local food supply and discuss how to deliver increased resilience.

Developing an approach to work with aggregated data

By performing a literature review, we are identifying a suitable decomposition of aggregated categories that can provide insights at an informed level of granularity or product level. We are developing a methodology that can recognise the heterogeneity of consumed food products and considers consumers’ tastes and preferences. This allows us to quantify consumers’ motivation, such as variety-seeking in their purchasing decisions.

Identifying food products (fruits and vegetables, red meat, and dairy) produced and consumed in Scotland

The next phase involves identifying products and their provenance. This process involves consulting with key stakeholders in the fresh produce, red meat, and dairy sectors in combination with Kantar Worldpanel data to construct bespoke datasets. The estimation of the production of commodities is relatively straightforward because that comes from Scottish statistics. The production of more processed products is more challenging because we depend on identifying Scottish products in the Kantar Worldpanel data and where these products are sold. This provides information about the divergence between Scottish purchases and total production.  

Developing indicators of mismatch between production and consumption

We are using the information about the mismatch between local supply and demand to identify opportunities for increased food security. We are consulting with stakeholders to identify food products and generating indicators, based on Kantar Worldpanel data, of the mismatch between production and consumption. These indicators and the reasons why and what would be required to align both sides are informing policy recommendations. Last, we are identifying how climate change may affect the local food supply and discussing how to deliver increased resilience.