Search

Natural capital (NC) refers to a concept or framing, with a focus on the stocks and flows of services that nature provides to society, and specific datasets. This concept has seen growing attention over the last decade and improving the data, as it is hoped, may assist in greening decision-making, in various sectors and venues, ranging from policy through financial investors, to farm level.

Scotland is a pioneer in adopting natural capital: a Scottish Government Natural Capital Policy team is working to embed Natural Capital into policy processes, framed around the Four Capitals approach; whilst multiple initiatives within NatureScot’s Natural Capital Pilot Programme (NCAPP) explore how to work with it with different groups and levels. Other notable initiatives directly relevant to natural capital include SEPA’s One Planet Choices initiative, which uses integrated capital assessments. The general goal of all such initiatives – and that this project seeks to both learn from and inform – is to routinely embed consideration of natural capital across sectors, policies and levels.

Natural capital is not a single, simple or easy-actionable piece of information. It has multiple and contingent versions and interpretations; will not be the only form of knowledge used in interpretation; furthermore, interacts with interests and institutional structures when influencing decision-making processes. These interacting factors often tend to inhibit change. Achieving transformation in support of sustainability is thus an urgent challenge but also notoriously difficult. Identifying levers of change is vital to ensure future research and practice efforts are most appropriately and effectively focused. There is a need to critically appraise how and when natural capital can support change for sustainability.

Poor air quality continues to harm public health and the natural environment in Scotland. Progress in improving air quality is both uncertain (due to an inadequate evidence base) and slow (due partly to uncertainty about the efficacy, cost, and consequences of improvement measures). Studies suggest that biomass burning makes a very significant contribution to concentrations of particular matter (PM) in the air, which can lead to serious health problems. Particulates are classified according to size. The UK is currently focused on measuring the fractions of PM where particles are less than 10 micrometres in diameter (PM₁₀) and less than 2.5 micrometres in diameter (PM_2.5) based on the latest evidence on the effects of PM on health. Even in a smoke-controlled area like London, 10% of the winter PM₁₀ has been attributed to wood smoke.

The contribution to PM_2.5 is larger and can exceed that from tailpipe emissions. Air pollution, especially PM_2.5, is highly correlated with various adverse health impacts. Particulates contribute to climate change, for example: a) emission savings due to the replacement of fossil fuels, b) the indirect effect of black carbon emitted from fossil fuels, and c) variable embodied carbon in imported biofuels used in Scotland.

Comparatively little is known for the Scottish context, where solid fuel combustion is used both as a traditional heat source, as well as increasingly as a renewable heat source, encouraged by policies such as the Renewable Heat Incentive, Feed-in Tariffs, and the Merton rule for on-site renewable heating for new builds. The only measurement evidence for the proportion of PM_2.5 from biomass burning in Scotland comes from the UK’s black carbon network, from which a wood-burning proxy can be derived as brown carbon from aethalometer measurements. Winter contributions of wood smoke to total PM₁₀ ranged between 3-6% at background sites (Auchencorth) to 6-8% at urban sites (Edinburgh and Glasgow). The relative contribution to PM_2.5 could not be established using older data but is likely to be significantly larger. No information currently exists for populated regions outside of smoke-controlled areas (for example, rural village settings) where solid fuel use likely lies above the UK average. For example, Scotland, making up 8.2% of the UK population accounts for 30% of the UK’s domestic Renewable Heat Incentive biomass installations.

Biodiversity loss is the result of human activity and the overuse of natural capital. The Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) recognises this as the main driver of the loss of biodiversity and decline in ecosystem service supply. However, the IPBES categorises it as an indirect driver of biodiversity loss as it acts through five direct drivers of loss: land use change, climate change, pollution, invasive species and direct exploitation. These drivers have been shown to have a wide-scale impact on biodiversity.

Agriculture is a significant contributor to the global decline in biodiversity, directly through land use change and environmental impacts but also indirectly through climate change. In the arable sector, neither alternative approaches to conventional agriculture nor legislation has proved effective in mitigating these adverse effects. Much has been written about insect declines, but the evidence is contested and is generally poorly linked to explanatory drivers. Aphids are a widespread and often abundant component of insect communities. Due to their biology and life cycle, they provide an excellent indicator of local environmental conditions.

One of the biggest predicted climatic drivers of change for Scotland is drought. There is a particular urgency in understanding the responses of forest systems given the decadal periods required for the growth of trees to maturity; trees established now will likely experience significant climate changes as they grow to maturity. This is a particularly important research need for a species such as Scots pine, with its wide genetic variability even within its Scottish native populations. 

Salmon populations are also in decline, with climate and land use change identified as potential drivers. However, pollution and in particular exposure to chemical contaminants may be contributing to this decline. Although many of these chemicals may be present in waters at sub-lethal concentrations. Endocrine Disrupting Compounds alter hormone systems and affect reproductive development and function in aquatic animals (such as salmon), with consequent impacts at the population level.

Another key global driver of biodiversity loss is the invasion of non-native species. They can seriously impact individual species and have ecosystem-level consequences. Current risk assessment approaches to invasive non-native species do not allow generic assessments to be developed, nor consider the wider socioeconomic aspects of invasive non-native species. Risk assessments are currently done at the level of an individual plant pest or pathogen.

Scotland has ambitious targets to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2045. As part of this, the Scottish Government is working towards a suite of targets tackling waste generation and disposal by 2025, with a longer-term vision to move towards a circular economy for the benefit of the environment, the economy, and communities.

Circular economy principles involve a transition from a linear ‘take, make and dispose’ model of consumption to a more circular model which emphasises material flows, recovery of resources and components, and valorisation of waste products. In the circular economy, our approach to consumption would need to be characterised by new behaviours (of individuals, households and businesses) focusing on reducing the volumes of resources consumed, by instead reusing items, repairing instead of replacing items, refurbishing or remanufacturing to create new products and recycling what remains.

Moving towards a circular economy requires a broad cultural shift in how consumers and businesses think about and act concerning the consumption and disposal of materials and products. This requires more strategic evidence to support policymakers in promoting behaviour change, the development of new business and lifestyle models, and a further understanding of the wider workforce skills that will be necessary to support the circular economy transition.

Scotland has ambitious targets to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2045. As part of this, the Scottish Government is working towards a suite of targets tackling waste generation and disposal by 2025, with a longer-term vision to move towards a circular economy benefiting the environment, the economy, and communities.

Circular economy principles involve a transition from a linear ‘take, make and dispose of’ model of consumption to a more circular model which emphasises material flows, recovery of resources and components, and valorisation of waste products. In the circular economy, our approach to consumption will require new behaviours (of individuals households and businesses) focusing on reducing the volumes of resources consumed, reusing items, repairing instead of replacing items, refurbishing, and remanufacturing to create new products, and recycling what remains.

The transition to a more circular economy necessitates a systemic way of thinking and acting that interconnects people and communities, industries and infrastructure, and institutional and policy governance. However, before a transition can take place, a clearer understanding of the willingness and readiness of people and places, infrastructure, and institutions, to advance on the path is required.

Computer modelling has an increasing role to play in helping to navigate the landscapes of complex social-environmental decision-making processes and offer decision-makers integrated, consistent guidance based on formalizations of evidence. Such computer modelling needs to be accountable and transparent, especially when the consequences of such decisions have impacts on businesses and citizens. There is also the need to integrate data and models about rural social-environmental systems to enhance the capability to answer policy-led questions quickly. Specifically, using data and models to monitor:

• The health of Scotland’s soils in support of the production of land-derived goods, biodiversity, regulation of water and nutrient flows, and carbon sequestration.
• Biophysical and societal pressures on arable land systems and the threats and opportunities from climate change.
• Changes in frameworks for supporting production systems, changes in international trade agreements, and technological innovations particularly in the circular economy. 

• How digital transformation projects progress (or fail) and create value in socially complex organisations;
• How organisations leverage digital technologies to create new products and services and the challenges associated with managing the development of new forms of digital products and services
• Approaches to facilitate the acceptance of innovations in organisations 

Chemical food contaminants are a persistent problem when assuring the provision of safe and healthy foods for consumers. Cereals are frequently contaminated with mycotoxins produced by a fungal infection of grains in the field or storage. Guidance on good agricultural practices to minimize risks of Fusarium fungi and mycotoxins in UK wheat is available. As demand for high-quality UK food oats increases, guidance for growers to improve agronomy practices has also been developed. Prevention of Fusarium fungi and mycotoxins is, to date, not included in such advice. 

Once a cereal is contaminated, mycotoxins are subject to further plant metabolism, resulting in conjugated metabolites, so-called masked mycotoxins, which co-occur in cereal grains. Masked mycotoxins are not toxic per se, but the human gut microbiota releases free mycotoxins in the colon, which will contribute to exposure. 

The fate of some Fusarium mycotoxins, such as deoxynivalenol and its masked form deoxynivalenol-glucoside, has been well described in humans and validated urinary biomarkers are available to assess exposure. However, accurate assessments of dietary exposure to potent mycotoxins T-2 and HT-2 toxins in humans are very limited. Our preliminary work has shown that increased oat consumption resulted in increased urinary excretion of T2 and HT2, and there is an urgent need to better understand the absorption of T2 and HT2 and their masked forms from food and their metabolism in humans to fully validate urinary biomarkers to be used in human biomonitoring studies. 

Overall, the production of T2 and HT2 and their masked forms in oat cereals, their fate through processing and their contribution to overall exposure in humans are not well understood.

Facing current environmental emergencies, governments worldwide have set themselves ambitious targets to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at national levels. Scotland is eager to make a pivotal contribution by setting a target of net-zero GHG emissions by 2045 and reducing emissions by 75% by 2030. In Scotland, agriculture is responsible for 24% of all emissions and has an important role to play in the fight against climate change. Part of the portfolio of mitigation measures to achieve a transition towards climate-neutral land use in Scotland should include GHG removal activities by farmers.

Increasing the extent of agricultural diversity could be a key component in agriculture’s response towards the mitigation of GHG emissions. Hemp used to be part of Scotland’s industry and is suited to both the climate and growing conditions in the main agronomic areas. It has been estimated that 8.9-13.4 tonnes of CO₂ are absorbed per hectare of UK hemp cultivation. Our previous research identified various nutritious and sustainable food crops which grow or have the potential to be grown in Scotland. Hemp was identified as having an excellent nutritional profile, being a rich source of protein and dietary fibre and a good source of micronutrient minerals such as magnesium, phosphorus, potassium, calcium, and zinc.

It is recognised that hemp could provide a step-change in agriculture, where farmers combine environmentally and commercially successful management as the next steps to be taken to fulfil Scotland’s environmental ambitions Therefore, hemp could play a role in the development and expansion of a low-carbon, environmentally responsible industry, bringing a new ‘cash-crop’ to Scottish agriculture and creating new opportunities across the supply chain.