Project Lead
Challenges
The agriculture sector is an important source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and has a key role to play in helping to reduce net GHG emissions by sequestering carbon into the soil and vegetation. However, progress in achieving emission reductions in this sector has been slow. The climate change plan 2018-2032 requires the agriculture sector to achieve net zero emissions by 2045 necessitating a fundamental transformation of land use to deliver a low carbon, holistic, sustainable integrated food production systems. This needs widespread adoption of low emission farming practices. The organic carbon content of soils and GHG emissions from the agricultural sector cannot be easily measured, which is a key barrier for implementing programmes to achieve NetZero. There is a need for credible and reliable measurement, monitoring, reporting and verification platforms, both for national reporting, emissions trading and to track progress towards Net Zero.
Questions
- What can the agriculture sector do to reduce its emissions and to meet its targets under the Climate Change Plan update, ensuring that it plays its full role in tackling climate change and contributing towards Scotland’s ambitions for Net Zero by 2045?
- What improvements are needed to ensure actions taken are fully and accurately captured in the national greenhouse gas inventory?
- How can we best improve farm level carbon calculators to inform and enable mitigation actions and monitor progress towards agricultural targets in a way that is clear, transparent and consistent with the greenhouse gas inventory?
Solutions
This project aims to better assess each mitigation practice for its additionality, permanence, and uncertainty in achieving Net Zero.
Improving national GHG inventory
We are focussing on developing Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier 3 methodologies using process-based models to reduce uncertainties in the current national GHG inventory. This involves:
- Developing national soil, climate, and farm management database.
- Bottom-up modelling and scenario analysis.
- Top-down modelling of GHG emissions using tall tower observatory.
Identify potential measures of GHG mitigation
We focus on two tasks: first to provide evidence of new GHG mitigation measures and second to identify region-specific GHG mitigation options using Tier 3 models. The former activity assesses the impacts on GHG emissions relative to current conventional crop management practices across six of the most grown arable crops in Scotland using the Centre for Sustainable Cropping (CSC), a platform that provides long-term baseline data and context for whole-system responses to an integrated management options. GHG emissions are highly variable over space and time.
GHG emissions from agriculture systems under contrasting environments can affect mitigation potential of practices. The UK has developed Tier 2 emission factors for agricultural systems which are based on country specific conditions, however, these emission factors may not apply for climate change projections. Denitrification-Decomposition (DNDC) and Estimation of Carbon in Organic Soils - Sequestration and Emissions (ECOSSE) process-based models can be used to predict the impact of various agriculture management practices on net GHG emissions. We are using these models to capture the interaction between management practices, climate, soil, and crop. We use upscaled DNDC and ECOSSE to find appropriate region-specific mitigation options and its potential to contribute to NetZero 2045.
Scalable digital carbon calculator to enable mitigation actions at farm level
This project is extending the development of a digital carbon calculator to estimate changes in soil carbon and GHG emissions to produce near real time GHG emission estimates from agriculture at national and farm scale. We are developing a prototype digital carbon calculator and mobile app with enhanced features widening its applicability to estimate GHG emissions in near-real time.
Co-production of outcomes with land managers and key stakeholders
We are involving farmers and key stakeholders in co-producing a farm level digital carbon calculator, to ensure that it meets their needs and is designed in a form accessible to them. We are conducting a literature review on land manager perceptions and behaviours relating to nutrient management, and hosting workshops exploring land manager nutrient management practices.
Life cycle analysis of agriculture commodities and potential towards net zero
This project is evaluating the environmental impacts of Scottish agricultural commodities, including imports and exports, and exploring the potential changes in impacts and dangers of ‘off shoring’ emissions when switching to a future 'fully renewable energy' scenario. This includes:
- Mapping agricultural commodities that are produced, imported and used nationally.
- Assessing the environmental impact of current key agricultural commodities.
- Assessing the change in environmental impact of agricultural commodities under a fully renewable energy scenario.
Project Partners
Progress
Improving national GHG inventory
A comprehensive dataset including soil, climate and farm management data has been developed to enhance the national GHG inventory. This dataset will be used to estimate GHG emissions at a national level using process-based models. Additionally, the management impact on soil carbon and GHG emissions was analysed using the DNDC model, which utilized long term data from the CSC (Balruddery Farm), with two treatments of sustainable and conventional management.
Identify potential measures of GHG mitigation
In this work package the team examined various mitigation options that could meet GHG emission targets and achieve net zero. The findings suggested that crop diversification and low nitrification management, combined with increasing the proportion of grain legumes, could be a strategic change for the agri-food system to meet GHG emissions targets.
Scalable digital carbon calculator to enable mitigation actions at farm level
This work package involves the development of a digital Measurement, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) prototype and mobile application called RETINA to identify GHG mitigation options. The RETINA app was designed to improve applicability, record farm activity, and include carbon sequestration and crop production models. Soil biophysical data was generated using LoRaWAN sensors at Glensaugh, which linked measurements to soil carbon stock and turnover. In addition, drones were used to capture aerial imagery, which was then paired with vegetation biomass data to develop a biomass prediction model for two sites: a cropping system at CSC (Balruddery) and an upland pasture system at Glensaugh.
Co-production of outcomes with land managers and key stakeholders
This work package focused on identifying drivers for farmer behaviour, which included conducting a literature review and compiling and summarizing empirical results and theoretical frameworks from relevant literature to inform the design of workshops with stakeholders.
Life cycle analysis (LCA) of agriculture commodities and potential towards net zero
The work involved mapping the production and import/export of agricultural commodities to inform LCA models. Initial findings indicated that the UK is a net importer of cereal crops, with exceptions being oats and barley. Between 2021-2022, a total of 2,171,302 tonnes of goods were exported from the UK, while a total of 10,220,613 tonnes of cereals and grains were imported into the UK between 2020-2021. Imports were marginally higher from outside the EU (54%) than within, and the UK imports from 88 countries.
Impact of the Project
There has been significant interest in the RETINA system from several companies and the team has been actively engaging with these industries to explore the system's potential applications in the agriculture market. Throughout the year, the project's principal investigator has been involved in developing the Soil Carbon Code, participated in various stakeholders and engagement activities with industry as well as farmers organizations. Various project members have contributed to policy development through CXC initiatives. Additionally, the project team collaborated with Scotland's Rural College (SRUC) and the UK Agricultural Inventory team to gain insight into inventory construction and the Scottish Government's priorities for improving the inventory.
Related Projects
The aim of this research is to address some key farm-level and policy-level issues to help develop policies in Scotland and more widely in the UK and in Europe, as part of a wider national and international research programme. The research includes a combination of environmental economic modelling, survey work and development of monitoring and evaluation tools and approaches. Specifically,...
- Agricultural Greenhouse Gases
- 2016-2022
Novel Crops: To address opportunities for producing alternative protein and carbohydrate crops in Scottish agriculture for fish and crustacean feed, bioenergy, bio-refining, animal feed and human consumption, and to develop design criteria for integrating suitable alternative legume and non-legume crops as sole and intercrops within rotations whilst also accounting for...
- Crop Improvement
- 2016-2022