The challenge of envisioning the future climate of Scotland has been made easier due to a new set of climate change projections for the UK (UKCP18). Climate change is likely to substantially alter many aspects of our lives, our environment and economy. Therefore, it cuts across many policy domains and all sectors. The new projections present an opportunity for improving our ability to research climate change impacts, plan for adaptation and explore opportunities for mitigation and adaptation.

At a recent SEFARI Gateway Responsive Opportunity Funded workshop (in March), researchers met with individuals from the Scottish Government and agencies, local authorities and the private sector to discuss the UKCP18 and how the benefits of its use in Scotland may be improved through collaboration. There was recognition that the UKCP18 is a substantial resource to support all sectors in preparing for climate change, but that its use is challenging, and in this blog Dr Mike Rivington from the James Hutton Institute explores the concept of developing a ‘UKCP18 Scotland User Group’ to help facilitate collaboration for improved understand and sharing of knowledge.

The benefit of hindsight is that we can learn from our experiences, but history is not always a good guide to the future. The benefit of foresight, as provided by projections of a future climate, is that we can explore the range of conditions we might experience and better prepare to reduce risks and benefit from opportunities.

In November 2018 the UK Meteorological Office released a new set of climate projections for the UK, called UKCP18, which follow on from previous releases in 2002 and 2009. These projections are estimates of the future climate under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and form the basis for climate change impacts assessment and adaptation planning. They help decision-makers assess their risk exposure to climate and are used by a wide range of researchers, practitioners and policy teams across many social and environmental subjects, e.g. health, transport, agriculture, flood risk management etc.

The UKCP18 is supported by the Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra).

The projections arise from the use of global and regional scale climate models simulating land, ocean and climate processes for different emissions scenarios. They are based on a global scale cooperation in the World Climate Research Programme (CMIP6). Whilst the UKCP18 is a remarkable resource to help prepare for climate change, using them can be challenging and raises many questions.

For example, they cover five emission scenarios, so which one should we use? They cover multiple spatial and temporal scales, so which ones are best for a particular issue? There may be issues of accuracy and utility, so how best to evaluate the data?

These graphs are an example of UKCP18 information. It shows the future temperature increases are highly dependent on the emissions pathways. This graph illustrates the differences between low (left) and high emissions (right). Currently we are on the high emissions rate trajectory (RCP8.5, red) leading to a risk of a 4°C+ rise in temperature by the end of the century. With appropriate mitigation efforts we could reduce emissions (RCP2.6, blue) and reduce temperature rise risks to a 1.5°C increase.

For many stakeholders the main issue is how can the data be used to produce information for a particular research question, application or policy need? Whilst the UKCP18 website provides valuable information and the Met Office has an enquiry service to help users, still access, use and interpretation is a challenge for those unfamiliar with the projections. I felt perhaps the best approach to learning would be by using the projection data alongside others and sharing our knowledge.

Hence, I recently ran a workshop to bring together stakeholders from research, policy, agencies, local authorities and the private sector to discuss the use of the projections and whether there is a need for some form of supported medium for collaboration – a ‘UKCP18 User Group’.

The workshop highlighted the value of the projections, but also the difference between people’s level of knowledge of them and their various needs for detail. Many had little or no experience but require a high level of information detail for their area of application. We discussed the different uses of the projections and several common themes emerged around a wider range in application areas and challenges such as:

• The need for translation of projection details (data) into things like risk indicators. For the communication and dissemination of risks (e.g. flooding, drought etc.).
• Informing wider policy on mitigation and adaptation in Scotland, such as local scenarios, impacts on mitigation targets etc.
• The need for consistency in messages based on UKCP18 use.
• The technical challenges in accessing and using the data: How can people with limited technical capacity be supported?
• Putting climate change in Scotland in the context of global impacts.
• What Scotland’s position may be in the global climate change context: how vulnerable are we compared to other places; what is our risk exposure due to climate impacts elsewhere?

Across the diverse range of user needs represented, some synergies and common goals started to arise. A ‘speed dating’ exercise to get the participants talking to each other about their needs and planned uses lead to many conversations and exchanges of business cards, which appeared a useful way to hopefully instigate informal collaboration. During the workshop it became clear that there is need for additional help and support in order to make best use of the projections: there was a clear recognition of the potential benefits of better integrated use of the projections.

When asked about how to move forward, the participants’ preferred approach to initiate collaboration was an online forum to enable information sharing and annual meetings (at least) to discuss issues and share knowledge. These efforts could link with existing media such as SEWeb and the Sustainable Scotland Network (SSN). The next step is therefore to seek support for establishing a UKCP18 user group forum and keep momentum going.

Through the Scottish Government’s Strategic Research Programme, much work is already being conducted on climate change. This will be enhanced by better informed use of the UKCP18. Other organisations, such as Adaptation Scotland and ClimateXChange are also working with the projections and helping to improve user’s knowledge and experience. Having a supported medium for knowledge sharing and collaboration on UKCP18 use appears to be a popular option. The workshop showed a consensus for help to support collaboration across the different UKCP18 users, based on the participants responses.

As we head into a new climate era and the uncertainties this brings, it is vital that we use the information available about the potential future to plan mitigation and adaptation strategies and actions the best we can. The UKCP18 provides a unique resource to support research to inform policy development to reduce risks and make the most of opportunities. To do so requires a sound understanding of the projections and how to use them. This understanding can be substantially improved through collaboration and shared learning as demonstrated and aided by this project.

For further information about this project and the development of a UKCP18 Scotland Users Group please email: mike.rivington@hutton.ac.uk