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Issues related to the demand of fruits and vegetables in Scotland

Issues related to the demand of fruits and vegetables in Scotland

  • Food Supply & Security
  • 2022-2027
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Challenges

During the lockdown that followed the COVID-19 epidemic, households were restricted in accessing supermarkets and the amount of time spent shopping and cooking. These constraints, as well as other factors, may have changed households’ demand for fruit and vegetables. There is increasing interest in supplying consumers with more fruits and vegetables and creating new opportunities for Scottish producers.

Plans to increase the supply of fruits and vegetables need to be accompanied by an increase in the demand for them if they are to benefit or add value to Scottish producers or society. Our previous work found evidence of marked seasonality in the purchases of strawberries and raspberries in Scotland, and a sizable demand for soft fruit from the rest of the UK and Europe. However, this analyses and those in the wider literature, used data before the Covid-19 pandemic and the UK’s EU-Exit; both events could have changed demand patterns.

The “Food Standards Scotland Strategy for 2021-2026: Healthy, Safe, Sustainable: Driving Scotland’s Food Future” has several relevant goals. One goal consists of delivering a food environment which empowers consumers to make safe, healthy, and sustainable choices by driving and influencing strategies for improving access to a healthy and sustainable diet for the people of Scotland. Another goal is to engage all parts of society to understand the issues that matter to consumers and to provide information that is tailored to their needs. To achieve these goals, we require the best available data and methods to strengthen insights into behaviours, attitudes, and wider food interests of the Scottish population.

Questions

  • How interested are consumers’ in increasing their demand for fruit and vegetables coming from Scotland and how this is affected by factors such as competition from products from elsewhere and prices?

Solutions

This project consists of an analysis of the Scottish demand for fruits and vegetables to help produce a detailed set of scenarios and recommendations about the scope and potential value of increasing soft fruit and vegetable production in Scotland. The overall aim is to measure the benefits of increasing the supply of fruits and vegetables to expand their consumption in Scotland.

 

Analysis of the demand for fruits and vegetables

We are analysing the demand for selected fruits and vegetables and the potential impact of increasing their consumption by the Scottish population. We are considering the following aspects: per capita consumption by different socioeconomic groups, seasonality analysis, and competitors of Scottish fruits and vegetables in the eyes of consumers. We are initially focused on soft fruits and potatoes, but this will switch to rhubarb, turnips, carrots, cabbages, leeks, broccoli, mushrooms, and brussels sprouts.

 

Exploring consumers’ views and their willingness to buy

Next, we explore several issues related to consumers’ views of fruits and vegetables. This includes consumers’ willingness to buy Scottish products out of season, interest in plant-based products, and preferences for alternative business models for purchasing fruits and vegetables.

Our approach across this project combines two types of economic analyses: demand analysis and choice experiments. The demand analysis is estimating the demand for key fruits and vegetables in Scotland and provides information about their substitution and complementarity.

The choice experiments are identifying variables that are important to explain the consumption of fruits and vegetables and simulating the impact that changes on those variables in the Scottish consumption of fruits and vegetables.

Overall, we are boosting our understanding of Scottish consumers’ preferences for fruits and vegetables and the substitutions they are willing to do using revealed preference data. We also provide information about seasonality and the role played by different available sources and exploring consumers’ interest in different ways of purchasing fruits and vegetables, which may provide alternative business models for producers.

Project Partners

Scotland’s Rural College

Progress

2022 / 2023
2022 / 2023

This project consists of two Objectives; Objective 1 is to provide an analysis of the demand for soft fruits. This comprised of the following sub-objectives: 1.1) preparation of the Kantar Worldpanel dataset, 1.2.) descriptive statistical analyses, 1.3) estimation of econometric models - seasonality, and demand analysis, and 1.4) report and knowledge transfer activities.

We have estimated a demand system for soft fruit using data from the Kantar Worldpanel for Scotland for 2013-21 considering three income groups (<£30,000, £30,000-50,000 and >£50,000) and also studied the seasonality of the demand. The main studied soft fruits were blackberries, blueberries, raspberries, and strawberries. The share of Scottish soft fruit as a proportion of the total purchases is still modest and the purchases of soft fruit are still highly seasonal despite the possibility of getting out-of-season imported soft fruit. Total purchases of raspberries show an increasing trend. Strawberries and raspberries, the main produced soft fruit from Scotland, are price sensitive, however a decrease in price will not increase purchases much. Both are also sensitive to changes in income.

Objective 2 investigates consumers' views of Scottish fruit and vegetables out of season; and is comprised of the following sub-objectives: 2.1) brief literature review before preparing choice experiment, 2.2) preparation of the choice experiment, 2.3) performing the choice experiment on consumers' views, 2.4) discrete choice modelling of data and lastly 2.5) reporting and knowledge transfer activities. Preliminary results indicate that consumers (despite the availability) like to purchase strawberries in season. 

2023 / 2024
2023 / 2024
The work in the second year of this project has been on the demand for potatoes. Overall the project has progressed well and the objectives have been achieved. The following objectives have been achieved:
 
Objective 2.1 Preparation of the Kantar Worldpanel dataset (KWP) for potato analysis.
Objective 2.2 Descriptive statistical analyses of potato data.
Objective 2.3 Estimation of econometric models (seasonality, demand analysis) for potatoes using the prepared Kantar Worldpanel dataset for potato was carried out for the period 2013-2022
Objective 2.4 Report and knowledge transfer activities have been accomplished.
 
Regarding the demand model, an incomplete (i.e., it considers only the category of interest and an additional category that encompasses the remaining household budget) demand model was estimated using the Linquad model, to estimate elasticities. An additional work is being done to calibrate a demand model for potatoes, which can be used to provide simulation and forecasts for the potato demand.
The presentation to RESAS (B4 meeting) showed how the demand for fresh potatoes decreased over time due to a number of factors such as consumers preferences on health, on consumption habits etc. The issues regarding consumers' interest on cooking and whether this implied higher use of potatoes were tested during the COVID-19 period. The results showed that despite consumers having more time on their hands, they did not increase their demand for fresh potatoes. All these aspects are important because consumption/demand is the engine that pulls the agri-food supply chains.

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