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Computer modelling has an increasing role to play in helping to navigate the landscapes of complex social-environmental decision-making processes and offer decision-makers integrated, consistent guidance based on formalizations of evidence. Such computer modelling needs to be accountable and transparent, especially when the consequences of such decisions have impacts on businesses and citizens. There is also the need to integrate data and models about rural social-environmental systems to enhance the capability to answer policy-led questions quickly. Specifically, using data and models to monitor:

• The health of Scotland’s soils in support of the production of land-derived goods, biodiversity, regulation of water and nutrient flows, and carbon sequestration.
• Biophysical and societal pressures on arable land systems and the threats and opportunities from climate change.
• Changes in frameworks for supporting production systems, changes in international trade agreements, and technological innovations particularly in the circular economy. 

• How digital transformation projects progress (or fail) and create value in socially complex organisations;
• How organisations leverage digital technologies to create new products and services and the challenges associated with managing the development of new forms of digital products and services
• Approaches to facilitate the acceptance of innovations in organisations 

Chemical food contaminants are a persistent problem when assuring the provision of safe and healthy foods for consumers. Cereals are frequently contaminated with mycotoxins produced by a fungal infection of grains in the field or storage. Guidance on good agricultural practices to minimize risks of Fusarium fungi and mycotoxins in UK wheat is available. As demand for high-quality UK food oats increases, guidance for growers to improve agronomy practices has also been developed. Prevention of Fusarium fungi and mycotoxins is, to date, not included in such advice. 

Once a cereal is contaminated, mycotoxins are subject to further plant metabolism, resulting in conjugated metabolites, so-called masked mycotoxins, which co-occur in cereal grains. Masked mycotoxins are not toxic per se, but the human gut microbiota releases free mycotoxins in the colon, which will contribute to exposure. 

The fate of some Fusarium mycotoxins, such as deoxynivalenol and its masked form deoxynivalenol-glucoside, has been well described in humans and validated urinary biomarkers are available to assess exposure. However, accurate assessments of dietary exposure to potent mycotoxins T-2 and HT-2 toxins in humans are very limited. Our preliminary work has shown that increased oat consumption resulted in increased urinary excretion of T2 and HT2, and there is an urgent need to better understand the absorption of T2 and HT2 and their masked forms from food and their metabolism in humans to fully validate urinary biomarkers to be used in human biomonitoring studies. 

Overall, the production of T2 and HT2 and their masked forms in oat cereals, their fate through processing and their contribution to overall exposure in humans are not well understood.

Facing current environmental emergencies, governments worldwide have set themselves ambitious targets to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at national levels. Scotland is eager to make a pivotal contribution by setting a target of net-zero GHG emissions by 2045 and reducing emissions by 75% by 2030. In Scotland, agriculture is responsible for 24% of all emissions and has an important role to play in the fight against climate change. Part of the portfolio of mitigation measures to achieve a transition towards climate-neutral land use in Scotland should include GHG removal activities by farmers.

Increasing the extent of agricultural diversity could be a key component in agriculture’s response towards the mitigation of GHG emissions. Hemp used to be part of Scotland’s industry and is suited to both the climate and growing conditions in the main agronomic areas. It has been estimated that 8.9-13.4 tonnes of CO₂ are absorbed per hectare of UK hemp cultivation. Our previous research identified various nutritious and sustainable food crops which grow or have the potential to be grown in Scotland. Hemp was identified as having an excellent nutritional profile, being a rich source of protein and dietary fibre and a good source of micronutrient minerals such as magnesium, phosphorus, potassium, calcium, and zinc.

It is recognised that hemp could provide a step-change in agriculture, where farmers combine environmentally and commercially successful management as the next steps to be taken to fulfil Scotland’s environmental ambitions Therefore, hemp could play a role in the development and expansion of a low-carbon, environmentally responsible industry, bringing a new ‘cash-crop’ to Scottish agriculture and creating new opportunities across the supply chain.

The food supply chain is subject to potential contamination with natural and industrial toxins. Food can contain pathogenic microorganisms, natural toxic compounds or industrial chemicals added intentionally or accidentally. While acute food poisoning is relatively rare, long-term effects of food toxins are an area of concern and, therefore, routine testing of foods at different stages of agrifood processes is legally required. 

Toxin testing is typically carried out using analytic methods like high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) or liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LCMS), using commercially available standards, or immunological methods. Chemical and immunological analyses are very specific and typically detect a single analyte. Targeted LCMS also requires standards for the toxins under analysis.

The number of toxins with distinct chemistry, but similar toxicity, is often substantial. For example, there are 300 different known mycotoxins and 700 different pyrrolizidines. The related substances can be produced by the same pathogenic organism or by the metabolism of the toxin and may escape detection by normal analytical techniques. For some toxins, therefore, separate tests exist for the original and the metabolised toxin. Thus, it is impossible to test for such a wide range of mycotoxins using antibodies or LCMS.

Cell-based assays

Cell-based assays utilise whole cells as indicators of a specific biological process and can be used to detect chemicals which elicit toxicity. Cell-based assays can measure a variety of biological outcomes utilising parameters, including cell viability, transcriptional changes or signalling events involving protein-protein interactions. Cell-based analysis of signalling interactions can lead to the development of immunological tests, biochemical assays, and biosensors.

Cell-based assays are used in the pharmaceutical sector for pre-clinical screening of novel therapeutic compounds but have also been used for food toxicity testing. Examples include grain-borne mycotoxins, packaging-derived xenobiotics, shellfish toxins, or pyrrolizidine alkaloids in herbal extracts. Cell-based assays can simply measure cell viability (including toxicity or, conversely, growth stimulation by endocrine activity) but can also interrogate specific signalling events affected by toxins. Whole-cell bioassays based on bacterial cells, yeast and nematodes have been developed and are used for the detection of food and environmental toxins in some commercial settings. Cell-based assays can provide an alternative for and a complement to immunological and chemical testing. As for these established techniques toxin detection is influenced by food matrices.

The advantages of cell-based assays include:

• Automatic incorporation of bioavailability and viability testing.
• Ability to test for a group of chemicals with a similar toxicity profile.
• Ability to identify toxins for which no established standards currently exist.
• This is an active area of research, and the full potential of cell-based assays has not been fully realised yet. 

Initiatives to support consumers in making healthy food choices have failed to help Scotland meet its dietary targets. It is appreciated that this will not be achieved by a single approach. Reformulating food to be healthy, sustainable, and most importantly acceptable and affordable, has genuine potential in supporting these initiatives, but only if the supply chain is robust and economically viable. 

Our previous research has identified several crops that could be sustainably grown in Scotland (hemp, buckwheat, pea, and fava bean), with the main objective to address protein intake and reducing emission targets associated with livestock production. From a food formulation perspective, these crops are extremely versatile. For example, hemp grain can be milled to produce flour, and pressed to produce oil and dairy alternatives, with the co-products also having economic value contributing to an effective circular economy. 

The formulation of these crops can also contribute fibre, micronutrient minerals and vitamins and valuable bioactives to the diet. We have demonstrated that bread reformulated with hemp flour reduced hunger and modulated hormones associated with satiation. Buckwheat is a prime example of how we have developed a formulation to target the rise in postprandial glucose, which has been strongly linked to the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). This formulation was shown to reduce blood glucose in people living with T2DM (controlled by metformin or diet). Furthermore, the formulation is also versatile and could be included in a range of products providing a much-needed and familiar range of foods and drinks to support those looking to have a healthy lifestyle but finding it difficult to make the correct dietary choices. Successful implementation of these strategies requires supply chains to be in place and this includes primary production. Increasing demand necessitates bringing all actors within the supply chain together.

The supply and demand sides of Scottish food and drink are disconnected. Scotland produces food and drink products of the highest quality from diverse, internationally renowned, and often challenging land and marine environments that require careful management to balance production, biodiversity, and amenity. However, many Scottish food producers struggle to stay in business. 

Food consumption in Scotland tends to be associated with low intake of fruit and vegetables and with high rates of obesity and related ill health. These associations tend to be stronger for the economically disadvantaged. Economic disadvantage, marked by insufficient and insecure incomes, is also the main driver of food insecurity. The Family Resources Survey estimated that in 2019-20 eight per cent of Scottish households experienced food insecurity. Given that the average number of people per household in Scotland was 2.15 in 2019, it is likely that more than nine per cent, and possibly nearer 15 per cent, of the Scottish population has experienced some level of food insecurity in recent years.

Efforts are being made to bring Scottish producers and consumers together, such as through farmer’s markets. In parallel, networks have developed to supply large food banks which, in turn, provide smaller organisations and consumers with free or heavily discounted food and drink products. Such networks have expanded significantly since the 2000s and now cover much of Scotland. 

These networks remain under-studied in Scotland. However, research done elsewhere raises questions about the extent to which their charitable and often eligibility-dependent provision of food can address the economic conditions that they seek to alleviate and be compatible with the Scottish Government’s dignity principles. Working with people who have faced food insecurity is particularly important to build bridges across the divide between Scottish food production and consumption. While there is much quantitative evidence on overall consumption patterns, not enough is known about the attitudes of low-income consumers and the consumption habits of food-insecure people.

Crops, meat, dairy and fish represent some of Scotland’s most commercially important produce. For example, beef production is important for Scottish agriculture. In 2017 Scottish cattle farmers generated 27% of all Scottish agricultural output from the sale of animals for meat production and breeding, making it the biggest single sector of the Scottish agricultural industry. These food groups are also key components of a ‘healthy’ diet, yet the production systems can have quite different impacts on greenhouse gas emissions. Supply chain mapping allows resilience strategies to be put in place to rapidly react when there are supply shortages or changes in demand. Within the UK, generic maps of the supply chains have been produced. Generally, supply chain mapping is not commonly used to address compatibility with dietary guidelines, address alignment with consumption and purchase patterns, or assess how nutrient-density flows may impact the Scottish diet.

The UK’s EU exit and the Covid-19 pandemic have negatively affected many of these supply chains in different ways, with the introduction of export barriers having a particularly negative impact on sectors with a limited domestic market. Also, the concentration of consumer demand around some of the products in a specific food chain leads to imbalances in terms of what is produced and what is domestically consumed. Whilst the Scottish supply is sufficient to cover the Scottish consumption of several products, there are cases, like fish, where the consumption is only half of what is recommended, and full compliance with dietary recommendations cannot be satisfied.

To ensure healthy, sustainable, and secure food environments, it is important to understand how our diets relate to food supply chains - what is being produced, what is imported and exported, and how supply relates to what we eat and what we should be eating. Each supply chain has its own, often complex structure, for example, fish and shellfish operate across different sectors (fisheries and aquaculture), with sub-sectors having distinct supply chain routes, operational models, and timescales to market.

There is a need for dietary shifts to make the transformation towards diets that are healthier and more environmentally sustainable. In the past 50 years, we have seen a shift towards unhealthy diets high in calories, and heavily processed and animal source foods. Transitions to unhealthy diets are increasing the burden of obesity and diet-related non-communicable diseases and are contributing to environmental degradation. Dietary guidelines are an important behaviour change policy tool to guide consumers in terms of the foods and diets they should be eating. However, healthy diets alone do not produce substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, dietary guidelines need to include recommendations for environmental sustainability.

A few countries have started to produce dietary recommendations for health and environmental impacts. In addition, dietary guidelines in most countries fail to take account of reasons behind peoples’ food choices, such as habits, preferences, affordability, circumstance, culture, and social norms. Another issue with the implementation of nutrient-based dietary guidelines is that people eat foods, not nutrients. Foods contain multiple nutrients that cannot be readily swapped for one another. Therefore, more food-based interventions are necessary for effective behaviour change strategies towards more healthy and sustainable dietary patterns.

Evidence on existing interventions

Food purchasing is a key determinant of food consumption, and interventions targeting the nutritional and environmental quality of food prior to or during shopping presents a clear opportunity for effective behaviour change. Individual-level interventions previously identified as effective behaviour change techniques include tailored dietary advice, information, self-monitoring, and personalised feedback. Interventions implemented in grocery stores, particularly those that manipulate price, suggest that swaps, and perhaps manipulating item availability, have an impact on purchasing and could play a role in public health strategies to improve health. Using swaps to promote health would be a scalable and low-cost intervention, but currently there is limited evidence on its effectiveness. The success of offering swaps depends on consumers accepting the suggested swaps, but most studies thus far did not explore why swap acceptance rates could be low. Acceptance could be low due to how swaps were framed, perceived to restrict freedom and personal autonomy, and perceived to be less palatable. Also, many consumers put lower importance on health messages and higher importance on taste and price. Indeed, product costs have been a particularly crucial factor for those on lower incomes, and lower price can encourage choices of healthier products more effectively than health status labels.

The development of behaviour change interventions requires an understanding of facilitators and barriers for consumers to make food choices that are healthier and more environmentally sustainable, but also economically affordable. Currently we know relatively little about how individuals interact with their food environment and apply their perceived knowledge of healthy and sustainable diets. Several factors including socio-economic, life-stage, demographic, and geographic background, can drive individual decisions and behaviours when selecting foods and drinks, indicating that behaviour change interventions require a more in-depth understanding of drivers of individual food choice, on a more granular level.