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Resilience of ecosystems and biodiversity

Work Package 1.3 - Biodiversity and ecosystems

Research Deliverable 
1.3.3 Resilience of ecosystems and biodiversity
Leading Ideas 
Climate and the Environment


What makes a system resilient, and how can we manage for resilience?

Biodiversity, the variety of life on earth, provides us with much of what we need to live, yet biodiversity is being lost at an unprecedented rate with adverse effects on the natural world and society. Understanding how species and ecosystems are likely to respond and finding ways of increasing their resilience is necessary to inform policy and management.  The work here aims to increase our understanding of how species and biological communities may respond to land use and climate change, and how we can increase the resilience of these communities alongside human activity.

Aim of Research

Resilience of ecosystems and biodiversity. This work aims to study the different  aspects of resilience of widlife species and natural ecosystems to improve our understanding of how biodiversity and ecosystems are likely to change in response to environmental and climate change, and how to manage them to increase their resilience to change.


2018 / 2019
2018 / 2019

Diseases can have profound effects on wildlife and domestic species of plants and animals. We have developed novel approaches to modelling the spread of pathogens in the environment and host species. We have carried out studies to better understand the occurrence and spread of Campylobacter in the Scottish seal population, squirrel pox in Scottish red squirrels, spread and risk from great spruce bark beetle and the dynamics between livestock grazing and liver fluke risk. Novel techniques developed earlier in the programme have been used to monitor the occurrence of Phytophthora, an important group of plant pathogens, and understand the factors that control its distribution and dispersal. In relation to tree diseases, significant data has been collected on the potential of alternative tree species to replace those species at risk of loss due to introduced pathogens. Targeted and longitudinal monitoring systems have been established to further study filamentous plant pathogens (comprised of fungi and Oomycetes or ‘water moulds’) in conservation translocation programmes and ex situ conservation (preservation of biological diversity outside their natural habitats).

We have also worked with stakeholders to develop tools to enable them to better understand how land use and climate change may affect the distribution of high-priority species. For example, CaperMap, a participatory Geographic Information System, was developed to enable agencies, local communities and outdoor recreationalists to interactively and graphically explore and assess the affects of human disturbance on the distribution of Capercaillie in multiuse landscapes. We have also added projected climate change data to that on current tick distribution and climate across Europe, and incorporated anthropogenic land use changes, to develop advanced models to produce algorithms that will pave the way for predictions of how tick range will shift according to climate and land use change.

The national scale peatland model has been published and we built a draft local model of the RSPB Forsinard reserve which suggests that restoration sites are developing towards the target state. This was further investigated using moderate-resolution satellite imagery, in conjunction with data from greenhouse gas monitoring, and suggested a return of the photosynthetic capacity to target levels in less than a decade. Our work on resilient pinewoods investigated the diversity of invertebrate species associated with Scots pine trees, and the role that geographic location, provenance and genetics have in determining these. In addition, we carried out further Scots pine seed collections to facilitate investigation of extreme weather tolerance in future years.


  • Oak and ash biodiversity work used by Defra: Oak and ash are two of the most common British trees, but both are under threat from pests and diseases in addition to climate change.  If oak and ash decline in abundance then species that use the trees may also decline, particularly if they are only found on oak or ash trees. In order to conserve the species associated with ash and oak we need to know which species use these trees and how ‘at risk’ they are if ash or oak decline. Data, complied by scientists at the James Hutton Institute, on the number of species found on oak and ash trees was recently used by Defra in its 2018 Tree Health Resilience Strategy and was presented at the opening meeting of the Plant Health Centre of Expertise.
  • CaperMap: An engagement and communication tool to facilitate capercaillie conservation in multiuse woodlands. The final version of CaperMap was presented to stakeholders at a training event held at the Hutton at the beginning of this year. CaperMap is now assisting conservationists, local communities, and other stakeholders (e.g. SNH) to better understand how woodland can be managed to benefit outdoor users and capercaillie.
2017 / 2018
2017 / 2018

We developed and validated models which will allow a better understanding of how climate and land use change are likely to affect habitat condition and availability, and the distributions of diseases, and the mechanisms and organisms that spread them. Through workshops and literature reviews we have gained much better understandings of whole system resilience; how for example, coastal environments and pinewoods may or may not change in response to environmental change. We have developed new techniques to contribute to our understanding of plant pathogen prevalence and the risks of invasive species to natural species and ecosystems. Data and insights gathered on animal diseases has been shared with land owners to aid management and conservation strategies.


  • CaperMap – a communication tool for Capercaillie conservation: A participatory GIS system – CaperMap – has been developed through collaboration with a range of stakeholders as a communication and engagement tool to promote Capercaillie conservation. The tool has now been handed over to, and is being used by, stakeholders (RSPB, SNH, CNPA). The principles behind ‘CaperMap’ will now be extended to other high conservation priority and policy relevant species.
  • Modelling peatland condition using remote sensing: The possibility of monitoring peatland condition remotely, via satellite imagery, was tested. A model derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data trained with ground observations from the Common Standard Monitoring data (SNH) was developed. The resulting model was relatively robust and has been validated against several independent datasets. Whilst not applicable for use at individual site level due to the relatively low resolution of the MODIS data, the work highlights potential to use satellite imagery for cost-effective condition monitoring with future developments likely as resolution improves. This work was highlighted in Royal Society of Edinburgh’s Science Scotland.
2016 / 2017
2016 / 2017

The initial synthesis of the concept of resilience from the scientific and stakeholder perspectives revealed a good degree of common understanding. This provides a suitable framework within which other work on other components such as diseases and their vectors, and their environmental consequences, and umbrella or foundation species  will be considered in future years. The component system studies of resilience (woodlands and peatlands) have made significant progress in establishment of their methodologies, baseline data, or continued generation of results.  New bodies of work on aspects of spread and biodiversity consequences of woodland and animal diseases have been established.


  • Report on resilience concepts: A report on how resilience concepts can be applied to Scottish biodiversity has been completed and will form the basis of discussions with Scottish Natural Heritage to identify knowledge gaps.
  • Capercaillie habitat suitability model: A participatory spatial model of habitat suitability for capercaillie has been developed to aid management choices to assist capercaillie conservation.

Future Activities

Using squirrel pox, liver fluke and Campylobacter as experimental systems, we will continue to work on modelling and monitoring how pathogens are distributed in the environment, how they spread and the effect they have on biodiversity and ecosystems. This work aims to improve our understanding of the threats and impacts of diseases on biodiversity, and how we might manage these effects.

To inform the management of affected woodland and wooded landscapes, we will experimentally assess the suitability of alternative tree species to replace trees under threat from new plant pests and diseases. This work will seek to both identify which alternative tree species are suitable and which can provide a similar habitat and best provide the ecosystem services as the species which are lost.

Climate and land use change will alter the distribution of wildlife and habitats. To gain a better understanding of species and community resilience, we will explore how climate and land use change may affect the distribution of high priority species including mountain hares and ticks.

Other work will assess the use of satellite imagery to monitor the environmental effects of peat restoration.

Selected Outputs