Challenges
Natural capital (NC) refers to a concept or framing of the stocks and flows of services that nature provides to society. NC underpins all aspects of Human life and our economies through the delivery of ecosystem services (ES), often described as our ‘life support systems’. Biodiversity, as a key set of NC assets, is essential to enable the functional ability of ecosystems to provide services. However, NC is increasingly at risk from climate change, which is impacting biodiversity and ecosystem functions, jeopardising the supply of ES and reducing the potential for Nature-based Solutions (NBS) for mitigation and adaptation. The differentiated impacts of climate change on the many types of assets that make up Scotland’s Natural Capital is likely to determine how species, ecosystems and landscapes function and provide ES. Of particular concern is that the potential for ecosystems to mitigate climate change is reduced, or worse, change means assets increase greenhouse gas emissions.
To avoid this damaging feedback loop and improve our management and use of NC, we must increase our understanding of what the impacts of climate change are likely to be on NC assets, and how ES are affected. This is needed to improve planning and decision-making to protect and enhance ecosystems and maintain ES to continue supporting societal economic and well-being development. Detailed information is needed to help realise the potential for NC to enable Scotland to achieve net-zero emissions with the help of NBS.
Questions
- Under different climate change scenarios, which natural assets are most at risk from climate change?
- In what ways will climate change affect the ability of our natural assets to provide ecosystem services? How do these risks vary by location within Scotland?
- Moving beyond the carbon sequestration potential of peatland restoration and woodland creation - which natural assets provide the biggest opportunities to tackle the negative impacts of climate change?
Solutions
We assess the risks and opportunities for Scotland's natural resources caused by climate change. We combine existing knowledge, data, and analytical tools with new developments in methodology, data sources, and computing to create a comprehensive understanding of the impacts of climate change on natural resources. This includes using both quantitative and qualitative methods to examine the risks from various perspectives, including physical, environmental, and social.
The objective is to develop and apply a spatial Risk and Opportunities Assessment Framework (ROAF) that is flexible enough to enable both broad summary level and detailed asset specific assessments. We use the concept that Risk is a function of an asset's Vulnerability and how Exposed it is to a range of Threats (R=VET). The goal is to provide information and evidence as risk and opportunity maps with underpinning data analysis and interpretation. The context is a need for multiple societal benefits from healthy multi-functional climate-resilient landscapes, net-zero emissions, reverse biodiversity decline and enhance ecosystem services whilst maintaining vibrant communities and profitable business.
Framework Development
This project is developing a framework that can evaluate a wide range of natural resource types. We use biophysical modelling and new approaches to natural resource risk assessment in combination with data on biodiversity, water, and soils. We also consider how people perceive these risks and how they might affect the supply of essential ecosystem services.
Impact Assessment
We prioritise the most vulnerable and important natural resources, such as soils, water, peatlands (linked to the CentrePeat project), woodlands, and arable land. The project links to research on land use, large-scale modelling, and the impacts of climate change on agriculture, as well as water drought risk and hydrology assessments.
Risk Perceptions
The project examines the threats to natural resources caused by climate change, including extreme weather and changing precipitation patterns. Special attention is given to water and soils, as they play a crucial role in supporting ecosystems and maintaining biological processes. Increased droughts and dry conditions will increase the risk of fires, which can lead to a loss of ecosystem function and the release of carbon into the atmosphere.
We also use new earth observation data and remote sensing technology to fill in any gaps in our understanding of the impacts of climate change. Overall, the project provides a comprehensive assessment of the risks and opportunities posed by climate change to Scotland's natural resources.
Project Partners
Progress
In the first year of this project we have developed:
- The overall specifications for the ROAF.
- Reviews of issues concerning climate change impacts on NC risk perception and mitigation and adaptation to risk (through the lens of wildfire threats).
- Assessed key data sources (habitat maps) that represents the primary level at which impacts assessment on NC assets will be made.
- Developed a typology of NC assets to structure the ROAF.
- Successfully developed capabilities for high resolution spatial (1 km) and temporal (daily) assessments of climate change Threats using 12 climate projections. This includes new data sets of climate trends, future projection including extremes, maps and graphical visualisation tools and capabilities to estimate event return periods and probability of exceedance.
- Assessed the current wildfire danger conditions for the main habitat types in Scotland, in the context of improving understanding future levels of danger due to climate change.
- A project website.
From these developments, the key findings have been:
- There are detectable trends in the changes to Scotland's climate since 1960 and these are projected to continue and increase in the future. We mapped projected changes (1 km resolution) to 2079 showing the spatial and temporal variations.
- There is likely to be increased seasonal and annual variability.
- Extreme events and conditions are likely to become more severe and frequent.
- Increasing risk of large areas of Scotland experiencing a Climate Water Deficit, where evaporation from surfaces is greater than input precipitation leading to drier soils, particularly peatlands in the east of Scotland risking greater carbon loss rather than sequestration.
- Fire danger is likely to increase.
- These changes may have substantial impacts on soil water balance, cropping and forestry systems, inter-species competition, habitats and ecosystem function.
Related Projects
Natural Asset Inventory and Natural Capital Accounts: the aim is to develop a spatially-referenced register of Scotland’s natural assets and contribute to a set of natural capital accounts for Scotland that can over time track the progress of Scotland's green growth aspirations.
- Natural Capital
- 2016-2022