The development of an integrated risk and opportunities assessment framework that combines climate hazard mapping, environmental modelling, habitat vulnerability, exposure assessments and stakeholder perceptions of climate risk has been a major achievement. This framework enables the identification of natural capital assets most at risk from future climate change while also highlighting opportunities for adaptation and nature-based mitigation.

The research confirms that Scotland's climate is already changing, with winter rainfall increasing more rapidly than projected for the period 2020–2050. New national climate summaries and maps of climate extremes have been produced alongside agrometeorological indicators, providing an important evidence base for understanding current and future climate pressures. Analysis of climatic water balance shows that much of Scotland is shifting from seasonal water surpluses towards water deficits during late summer and early autumn, increasing water stress across many ecosystems.

Some of Scotland's most valuable habitats were identified as particularly vulnerable to these changes. Arable land, improved grasslands and broadleaf woodlands are projected to experience the greatest exposure to climatic water stress, while extensive areas of peatland are expected to face prolonged seasonal water deficits by 2050. Around 4,000 km² of upland blanket peat and almost 800 km² of eroded peat could experience sustained water stress between spring and early autumn, increasing the risk of falling water tables and the release of stored greenhouse gases. Eastern montane habitats were also identified as especially vulnerable because their shallow soils provide limited water storage, increasing the likelihood of biodiversity loss under future drought conditions.

The project has also examined the implications of climate change for soils and land management. Analysis indicates that changing patterns of rainfall and temperature will have complex effects on soil properties and microbial processes, varying according to soil type and organic matter content. The research suggests that risks of soil compaction and erosion are likely to increase under future climate conditions, reinforcing the need for robust soil health indicators to support sustainable land management. Climate projections also indicate increasing wildfire danger, particularly where woodland expansion coincides with drier conditions, highlighting the importance of considering interactions between climate adaptation and land-use change.

Alongside environmental modelling, the project has explored how land managers perceive climate risks and opportunities. Surveys and interviews showed a high level of awareness of climate-related threats among participants, with regenerative agriculture, woodland creation, improved water management and farm diversification identified as important adaptation strategies. Respondents also highlighted the need for clearer policy direction and practical support to enable effective climate adaptation across Scotland's rural landscapes. To improve communication of these findings, the project has developed an interactive story map illustrating climate risks across Scotland's peatlands.

The research has already had considerable influence beyond academia. Publication of the national climate trends and climate extremes reports attracted widespread media coverage across television, radio and newspapers, including features on BBC Countryfile. The work was recognised at the 2024 ENRA Science–Policy Conference as an example of effective impact from the Strategic Research Programme. Findings have informed the Scottish Government's National Adaptation Plan 3, contributing to a stronger emphasis on the urgency of climate adaptation, while project researchers also provided evidence to the Scottish Parliament's Net Zero, Energy and Transport Committee during scrutiny of the Climate Change Bill. The research has further informed the Scottish Government's Horizon Scanning programme, helping to shape longer-term thinking on emerging environmental risks.

Key Achievements in Year 2: 

•    Produced 1km-resolution maps showing observed climate changes in Scotland since 1960.
•    Identified that precipitation increases in the west of Scotland have already exceeded some UKCP18 projections for 2020–2050.
•    Published a website with mapped climate projections to 2080 in collaboration with JHI-C3-1 Land Use Transformations, offering animated summaries for over 30 agroclimatic indicators.
•    Delivered online seminars to Scottish and UK Governments sharing findings on climate trends, projections, and extremes.
•    Developed a new Climatic Water Balance ratio indicator, spatially aligned with habitat maps, to assess drought vulnerability of Natural Capital asset types.
•    Hosted scenario planning workshops to understand stakeholder perceptions of risk.
•    Conducted a soil expert workshop to explore how climate-induced shifts in soil water balance may affect microbiological function.
•    Generated external income via commercial research contracts (e.g., CNPA and private estates).
•    The Framework’s conceptual and technical development remains on track, with climate data inputs and visualisation components complete and integration pipelines under development.

In the first year of this project we have developed:

• The overall specifications for the ROAF.
• Reviews of issues concerning climate change impacts on NC risk perception and mitigation and adaptation to risk (through the lens of wildfire threats).
• Assessed key data sources (habitat maps) that represents the primary level at which impacts assessment on NC assets will be made.
• Developed a typology of NC assets to structure the ROAF.
• Successfully developed capabilities for high resolution spatial (1 km) and temporal (daily) assessments of climate change Threats using 12 climate projections. This includes new data sets of climate trends, future projection including extremes, maps and graphical visualisation tools and capabilities to estimate event return periods and probability of exceedance.
• Assessed the current wildfire danger conditions for the main habitat types in Scotland, in the context of improving understanding future levels of danger due to climate change.
• A project website.

From these developments, the key findings have been:

• There are detectable trends in the changes to Scotland's climate since 1960 and these are projected to continue and increase in the future. We mapped projected changes (1 km resolution) to 2079 showing the spatial and temporal variations.

- There is likely to be increased seasonal and annual variability.

- Extreme events and conditions are likely to become more severe and frequent.

• Increasing risk of large areas of Scotland experiencing a Climate Water Deficit, where evaporation from surfaces is greater than input precipitation leading to drier soils, particularly peatlands in the east of Scotland risking greater carbon loss rather than sequestration.
• Fire danger is likely to increase.
• These changes may have substantial impacts on soil water balance, cropping and forestry systems, inter-species competition, habitats and ecosystem function.