Realising change: working with communities to inform a resilient recovery process in remote, rural and island communities
Project Lead
Challenges
The rural economy is undergoing rapid changes, with profound impacts on communities and organisations. These include the ongoing implications of the Covid-19 pandemic, EU Exit and new trade deals, and the demands of achieving ‘net zero’. Demographic changes, evolving work practices and ways of delivering services, and emerging lifestyle preferences are shifting the links between rural areas and cities. However, the benefits of economic development have not been distributed evenly across Scotland, and there is a consensus on the need to address regional inequality and ensure a just transition. Some sparsely populated areas have lost population, and the socio-economic costs of ‘places left behind’ are large. Past regional and rural development schemes appear to have had a mixed record of success.
Rural and island communities have experienced long-standing issues relating to population and demographic change, sustainable rural development, public service delivery, equalities and socioeconomic opportunities. The key policy drivers include: rural depopulation, employment, education and skills, housing and infrastructure, community empowerment and ensuring that island and rural priorities are accounted for throughout government’s policy and legislation.
Questions
Solutions
This project aims to understand how change in remote, rural and island (RR&I) communities can be assessed, responded to, and facilitated. We look to identify what positive change could look like in RR&I communities, whilst simultaneously promoting empowerment through (enhanced) multi-level governance.
Qualitative longitudinal community and stakeholder integration
We are employing creative qualitative methods (including digital/life stories) in case studies, specifically “Living Labs”, to understand concerns around RR&I threats and how positive change can be facilitated. The term “Living Labs” relates to the participatory and action-based nature of the research engagement with case studies, which emphasises facilitating change while providing real-world examples of how that change is experienced.
This approach aims to generate deep insights for policymakers by facilitating direct and ongoing participation with the selected communities over the lifespan of the project. Sectoral, regional and national stakeholders who participate in the Scottish Government’s Rural Economy and Communities Stakeholder Group (SG REC- SG) are advising on effective community response strategies, including learning from other places, with the Living Labs acting as a policy testbed. This process is enhancing our understanding of effective decision-making and reflecting on the role of the Scottish Rural Parliament as well as understanding processes of further enabling a rural movement.
Quantitative secondary data analysis, revision, and integration
This activity involves revisiting national data sets as well as considering new sources. These include novel spatial indicators and datasets, such as the location of place-based assets, which are essential enabling factors for supporting community development, and the changes in these over time. Additional spatial indicators could include traditional measures of positive community outcomes, more advanced multivariate indicators of community ‘strength’ and novel indicators which capture elements of community inclusion and multi-dimensional well-being. It will thus go beyond other measures such as the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation, which is often criticised for neglecting rural aspects.
We build on and develop these datasets to grasp the diversity of RR&I areas beyond population density and facilitate the tailoring of interventions. By applying up-to-date statistical and econometric techniques, we assess and understand change in RR&I communities, macro-level relationships between access to assets (or lack thereof) and socio-demographic phenomena, and how local conditions affect nearby areas (negatively or positively), taking a longitudinal approach when data permit. This activity considers change and recovery across all Scottish RR&I communities by revising and integrating existing quantitative datasets. New measures and indicators, based on needs and preferences are seeking to understand which factors support RR&I recovery, including supporting population growth, reducing inequalities, representing minorities, and responding to unprecedented challenges in communities.
An agent-based model (ABM) to develop rural community scenarios
This activity develops an ABM to simulate future trends in Scottish RR&I communities and economies. ABM is a form of computer simulation that can explicitly represent different people, businesses, organisations and places, the interactions between them and how they change over time. It can be used to visualize complex relationships and to test plans and ideas in a safe environment. Using an ABM provides a novel mechanism for modelling change that will enable RR&I communities to explore future scenarios with stakeholders, including which place-based policies will deliver better outcomes. The model is initially being developed at the regional level with the longer-term intention of upscaling to the whole of rural and island Scotland to draw more general conclusions on key dynamics or specific sectors.
Progress
2023 / 2024
How the project works:
Living Labs: Six case study communities have been established as “Living Labs.” Researchers are working closely with residents to understand everyday experiences of liveability and to support local processes of change. Each community has already been visited at least twice, with the first round of data collection completed. The team has also contributed to the Scottish Rural and Islands Parliament.
Measuring change: A second strand of work is developing new indicators to track change in communities, drawing on both existing and new datasets. These measures are already helping to inform the allocation of Community-Led Local Development funding in Scotland.
Modelling the future: A third strand is building a model of change in RR&I communities, allowing researchers and stakeholders to explore different scenarios and better understand what might shape future resilience.
Next steps:
Planned work includes further engagement with Living Labs using participatory methods, analysis of the first round of interviews, active involvement in the 2026 Scottish Rural and Islands Parliament, and the development of new datasets to strengthen the model.
2022 / 2023
This project is exploring how remote, rural, and island (RR&I) communities in Scotland adapt to change, and how they can be supported to thrive in the face of ongoing challenges. By combining creative qualitative research with quantitative data and computer modelling, the aim is to help communities and policymakers work together towards resilient and sustainable futures.
Work Package 1 – Community voices (Living Labs):
Ten Living Labs have been established in eight locations across Scotland to understand how everyday life in RR&I communities is experienced by different groups, such as young people, older people, minority groups, and new or returning residents. Through interviews, workshops, and long-term engagement, the research will capture local concerns and opportunities for positive change. Ethical approval has been secured, and initial visits and interviews have begun.
Work Package 2 – Data on change and recovery:
Existing datasets on demography, economy, and inequality have been revised and integrated, with new measures being developed based on insights from the Living Labs. This work is helping identify the factors that support recovery, attract or retain population, and reduce inequalities. Outputs so far include datasets, code, and a report on how Community-Led Local Development funding is allocated to rural areas.
Work Package 3 – Computer modelling:
An Agent-Based Model (ABM) is being developed to simulate how people, businesses, organisations, and places interact within a rural community. This will allow researchers and stakeholders to test different scenarios and visualise how policies or events might affect communities and their economies. Early work has produced a draft network diagram and identified the key attributes to include.
Together, these strands of research will provide evidence and tools to better understand, support, and strengthen Scotland’s RR&I communities in the years ahead.
Previous Projects
Related Projects
Local Assets, Local Decisions and Community Resilience
This research aims to examine how resilience in rural communities can be enhanced through processes of local empowerment and the role of wider networks and partnerships in facilitating the enhancement of resilience. It will also consider how stakeholders’ (including academics, policymakers, practitioners and communities) understandings of rural community resilience can be developed to create collaborative initiatives in the future.
Demographic Change in Remote Areas
This research deliverable addresses the following question: What are the links between trends in farming/crofting/key rural industries and population change, in sparsely populated rural areas, and how do these affect the resilience of rural communities? The project will consider recent trends (since 1991) and will formulate scenarios for the period up to 2050.